Peter Tessier: The Adam Lowry debate part.... It flared up again, the debate over Lowry's role and value as it relates to the Jets and losing him in the expansion draft.

Lowry's absolute ceiling is average 3C. More likely he's an elite 4C from here on out, though. His value to the team is waaaaaay lower than people seem to think it is, but he gets a boost from being huge and relatively young. He also gets opportunities that other young guys don't, even if they have more talent (Petan, Dano, Armia).

Edit* I do like Lowry, and I hope we don't lose him to Vegas, but we could sign 10 of him in free agency almost every year. Highly entertaining, highly replaceable.

I think you nailed it Rexy

I starting to give up on here, same articles making the same point over and over. Wish Peter and Rexy would realize just how easily replaceable dano, copp, Perrault and petan are, since you seem to make this point about Lowry. i know you guys love Perrault but it's easier to fill his role in the top 6 than it is to find a guy like Lowry to center our fourth line. Petan had better anylitics when playing with wheeler than Perrault. Copp had equal anylitics to Perrault when playing there and I'm sure Connor can as well. I don't think finding a 6'3, 23 year old centre who will lead your team in hits every year to centre your fourth line is nearly as easy as Rexy thinks. I think the jets can survive without any player I've mentioned here. You can't win with every player playing the same role and that's what the jets have. Peter you focus way to much on individual player vrs player anylitics without understanding what it takes to build a winning TEAM, with individuals taking on different roles for that team. Just my two cents

Next article, is it impossible to replace a 40 point guy who misses 20 games a year, uses a nagging injury excuse whenever in a slump and who can only produce positive anylitics when playing in a top 6 role with players far better than him?

Next article, is it impossible to replace a 40 point guy who misses 20 games a year, uses a nagging injury excuse whenever in a slump and who can only produce positive anylitics when playing in a top 6 role with players far better than him?
- Ross77

Why thank you for asking Ross, I think you may be suggesting Perrault here and the answer is no, not impossible at all, it is quite easy actually to replace that.

Why thank you for asking Ross, I think you may be suggesting Perrault here and the answer is no, not impossible at all, it is quite easy actually to replace that.
- Ross77

Ross77 is answering his own questions....

I starting to give up on here, same articles making the same point over and over. Wish Peter and Rexy would realize just how easily replaceable dano, copp, Perrault and petan are, since you seem to make this point about Lowry. i know you guys love Perrault but it's easier to fill his role in the top 6 than it is to find a guy like Lowry to center our fourth line. Petan had better anylitics when playing with wheeler than Perrault. Copp had equal anylitics to Perrault when playing there and I'm sure Connor can as well. I don't think finding a 6'3, 23 year old centre who will lead your team in hits every year to centre your fourth line is nearly as easy as Rexy thinks. I think the jets can survive without any player I've mentioned here. You can't win with every player playing the same role and that's what the jets have. Peter you focus way to much on individual player vrs player anylitics without understanding what it takes to build a winning TEAM, with individuals taking on different roles for that team. Just my two cents
- Ross77

Good points. I think I tried to make these same points 3 or 4 posts ago, I just kind of gave up. It's easier to see Perreault go when you have Roslovic, Connor or Petan who can do the same job and maybe play more than 75% of the games (and come back to the bench with 100% of their equipment).

Pretty sure we don't have three 6' 5" Centres who won have 51 FO% and average over 200 hits a season who are 23 or under.

Can't wait until after the expansion draft when we can then talk about a) thank god we protected Perreault b) How did we not protect Perreault or c) Paul Maurice sucks.

Ross77

You have a veeeery poor understanding of the word "analytics" in regards to hockey. Perreault, Petan, and Dano all put up excellent underlying numbers regardless of who they play with. All 3 have carried Thorburn up and down the ice at some point last year. Copp did not perform well analytically in the top 6 at all, he was actually a bit of a drag on Scheifele and Wheeler. You're just ignoring his doubled shooting percentage and the fact that 55 and 26 are elite. The fact of the matter is that every single player in the Jets organization performs better with a Perreault, Petan, or Dano on their line than with a Lowry. In fact, until about game 50 this season, Lowry was a huge anchor for Armia. You could trade for another Lowry for a 3rd rounder yesterday, but Perreault is untouchable here.

Ross77

You have a veeeery poor understanding of the word "analytics" in regards to hockey. Perreault, Petan, and Dano all put up excellent underlying numbers regardless of who they play with. All 3 have carried Thorburn up and down the ice at some point last year. Copp did not perform well analytically in the top 6 at all, he was actually a bit of a drag on Scheifele and Wheeler. You're just ignoring his doubled shooting percentage and the fact that 55 and 26 are elite. The fact of the matter is that every single player in the Jets organization performs better with a Perreault, Petan, or Dano on their line than with a Lowry. In fact, until about game 50 this season, Lowry was a huge anchor for Armia. You could trade for another Lowry for a 3rd rounder yesterday, but Perreault is untouchable here.
- Rexypoo

Lol, thank you, needed a laugh

Ross77

You have a veeeery poor understanding of the word "analytics" in regards to hockey. Perreault, Petan, and Dano all put up excellent underlying numbers regardless of who they play with. All 3 have carried Thorburn up and down the ice at some point last year. Copp did not perform well analytically in the top 6 at all, he was actually a bit of a drag on Scheifele and Wheeler. You're just ignoring his doubled shooting percentage and the fact that 55 and 26 are elite. The fact of the matter is that every single player in the Jets organization performs better with a Perreault, Petan, or Dano on their line than with a Lowry. In fact, until about game 50 this season, Lowry was a huge anchor for Armia. You could trade for another Lowry for a 3rd rounder yesterday, but Perreault is untouchable here.
- Rexypoo

to be fair I would never come close to calling myself an anylitics expert, I just read what I can. But you 100% over value Perrault!! Absolutely no arguing that. Dano and Postma to!!! Lol

Canes would be happy to acquire him on the cheap if you don't want to lose him in expansion for nothing.

He's exactly the guy we want to play a 3-4 C role. If I'm the Jets I'm not fretting too much over Lowry, though.

Here's a Ross77 quote for ya, "advanced stats are an excellent way to make crappy teams, slightly less crappy"

I'm still waiting for the Oakland A's, supposedly one of the first sports franchises to dive into advanced anylitics to win a championship.

Here's a Ross77 quote for ya, "advanced stats are an excellent way to make crappy teams, slightly less crappy"

I'm still waiting for the Oakland A's, supposedly one of the first sports franchises to dive into advanced anylitics to win a championship.
- Ross77

They're facts, and ignoring them does you a serious disservice and puts your team at a disadvantage, but they aren't strictly the answer.

You gotta use it as a check. Let the numbers tell you what's happening. Let your eyes tell you why.

In order of who I would prefer to be taken in the expansion draft.

1 Andrew Copp yes he is a bit of a jack of all trades but he excels at nothing. He is a Young Jim Slater. He is the easiest of the exposed to replace.

2. Nic Petan. I love Nic but he has been so misused to this point and I have no faith the coaching is going to change that.

3. Marco Dano. He has a ton of up side is a great agitator and have grit in his game. He is a solid 3rd liner.

4. Joel Armia I was going to put him ahead of Dano but his PK skills puck control and fore checking is at a level above the rest on this list. Some more consistency in his game and we has a player close to the level of Frolik.

5. Lowry. We need his size and physicality in that 4th role that plays around 12-13 minutes a game.

6. Perreault. He produces and would get the largest return in the open market why lose him for nothing.

They're facts, and ignoring them does you a serious disservice and puts your team at a disadvantage, but they aren't strictly the answer.

You gotta use it as a check. Let the numbers tell you what's happening. Let your eyes tell you why.
- BINGO!

I agree with you, they are one of many tools to look at. I sometimes over criticize them because I find too many people see them as the be all end all, and only focus on them and nothing else.